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FORECAST OF CONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT

We forecast construction investment in Japan of the present year and next year every 3 months based on “ RICE’s Construction Economy Model (CEM)” and “Quarterly Estimates of GDP” published by Cabinet Office.
You can get the latest forecast from this page. ( need Acrobat Reader)

RICE Construction Economy Model (CEM)

CEM is a macroeconomic econometric model that shows a projection of construction investment volumes in conjunction with macroeconomic business trends. CEM has been revised every year.

Analyses performed by CEM will make it possible to calculate the magnitude of impact that the construction sector will suffer from possible changes in financial or fiscal policies and fluctuations in overseas economies, or, on the other hand, to foresee how changes in construction investment activities might influence the future of the economy. Predictions are made for the coming one- to two-year range based on quarterly data. This allows us to obtain quarterly or yearly quantitative data on the total level of construction investment, growth rate, composition ratio of public and private sector, etc. for the current and upcoming fiscal years.

In addition to the construction investment, CEM can also be used as an analytical tool for making predictions and performing simulations related to macroeconomic trends such as economic growth rates, inflation rates, wages, corporate revenues, employment, and the international balance of payments.